Japan's foreign residents hit a record 4.28 million: checking the “surge” claims
Japan's Immigration Services Agency said on October 16 that the number of foreign residents reached a record 4,281,026 at the end of June. At the same time, new entries under the tightened “Business Manager” visa fell by about 80%, and visa overstayers declined 4.8% in six months. We check claims spreading on Japanese social media, such as “foreigners are already 10% of the population” and “illegal stays are rising,” against official statistics, and set out the views of those who want tighter control and those who prioritize coexistence and labor needs.
Verdict: are the viral claims true?
- True“Foreign residents hit a record 4.28 million”There were 4,281,026 at the end of June, up 155,631 (3.8%) from the end of 2025 — a new record.
- Misleading“The increase keeps accelerating”The number is still rising, but the six-month increase shrank from 187,642 (5.0%) a year earlier to 155,631 (3.8%). New entries in the first half were also down 0.1% year on year.
- False“Foreigners are already 10% of the population”Their share of the total population is about 3.5% (Kyodo News says 3.4%). Only 21 municipalities exceed 10% (2025 census); “one in ten” is a projection discussed for the 2040s.
- Misleading“Chinese nationals are flooding in on Business Manager visas”At the end of 2025, 24,840 of the 46,781 Business Manager residents were Chinese, just over half. But after the requirements were tightened, new entries in the first half of 2026 fell 80.9% to 635, and the number of such residents dropped to 42,747 by the end of June.
- False“Illegal stays are increasing”Overstayers numbered 65,229 as of July 1, down 3,259 (4.8%) from six months earlier, after an 8.5% drop the year before. These figures count people who overstayed their visas and do not include those who entered illegally.
- Unverified“At this pace the total will pass 4.43 million by year-end, or 3.7% of the population”This is a forecast and cannot be verified. The second half of 2025 added about 169,000; a similar rise would reach the 4.4 million range, but the current share is about 3.5% and growth has slowed compared with a year earlier.
Translated and adapted from our Japanese original. Facts are as of the original publication date unless noted.
4.28 million foreign residents: what went up, and what went down?
- Foreign residents (end of June)
- 4.28M
- New “Business Manager” entries
- -80%
- Overstayers (six months)
- -4.8%
Tighter control
The pace is too fast. Japan should manage the total intake and screen residence statuses more strictly.
Coexistence and labor needs
Workplaces short of labor depend on foreign workers. Overly strict rules will drive out local shops and workers.
- Both sides agree
- Foreign residents are at a record high, and most of the growth is in work-related statuses.
- What to watch next
- The government's basic policy, including how to manage intake numbers (due March 2027), and how renewals for existing Business Manager residents will be handled.
Key points
- According to the Immigration Services Agency, Japan had a record 4,281,026 foreign residents at the end of June. By nationality, China (941,031) came first, followed by Vietnam and South Korea; these three account for about half.
- Permanent residents were the largest group at 961,342. “Specified Skilled Worker,” a status for sectors with labor shortages, rose by 53,960 in six months to 444,256, and its higher “Type 2” tier more than doubled to 18,295.
- New entries under the “Business Manager” status, whose capital requirement was raised from 5 million yen to 30 million yen, fell 80.9% to 635 in the first half of 2026, from 3,329 a year earlier.
- Visa overstayers numbered 65,229 as of July 1, down 4.8% in six months. The agency credits its “Zero Illegal Stay Plan,” which speeds up the removal of foreigners who break the rules.
1. What is happening
Sorting out the viral claims
| Viral claim | What we confirmed |
|---|---|
| Foreign residents hit a record 4.28 million | True. 4,281,026 at the end of June, up 155,631 in six months. |
| The increase keeps accelerating | Still rising, but the six-month increase was smaller than a year earlier (187,642). |
| Foreigners are already 10% of the population | About 3.5%. Only 21 municipalities exceed 10%. |
| Chinese nationals are flooding in on Business Manager visas | Just over half of holders were Chinese, but new entries fell 80.9% to 635. |
| Illegal stays are increasing | Overstayers numbered 65,229, down 4.8% in six months and 8.5% the year before. |
Foreign residents at the end of June, by the numbers
| Category | Number | Change since end of 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total foreign residents | 4,281,026 | +155,631 (3.8%) |
| Permanent residents | 961,342 | +14,217 |
| Engineer/Specialist in Humanities/International Services | 516,184 | +40,394 |
| Technical Intern Training | 457,509 | +891 |
| Specified Skilled Worker | 444,256 | +53,960 |
| Business Manager | 42,747 | -4,034 (-8.6%) |
By nationality, China (941,031), Vietnam (693,750) and South Korea (408,682) were the largest. The fastest growth over six months came from Indonesia (+41,387), Nepal (+33,858) and Myanmar (+29,035).
Six-month increases
| Period | Increase |
|---|---|
| January–June 2025 | +187,642 (5.0%) |
| July–December 2025 | +168,776 |
| January–June 2026 | +155,631 (3.8%) |
What changed for the Business Manager status
- From October 16, 2025, the capital requirement rose from 5 million yen to 30 million yen or more, and applicants must also employ at least one full-time worker and have Japanese ability.
- New entries fell from 3,329 in the first half of 2025 to 635 in the first half of 2026.
- Departures without re-entry permission rose from 246 to 953.
- Until October 16, 2028, existing residents will not be refused renewal solely for failing the new criteria.
Overstayers over time
| Date | Number |
|---|---|
| January 1, 2025 | 74,863 |
| January 1, 2026 | 68,488 |
| July 1, 2026 | 65,229 |
By nationality, Thailand (10,260) overtook Vietnam (10,135) as the largest group.
Sources (mostly in Japanese)
2. What each side says
We summarize each side's main arguments in our own words, based on the original statements and reporting.
Tighter control
Justice Minister Takashi Yamashita said at a press conference on October 16 that the government will continue strict and smooth immigration control so that both Japanese citizens and foreign residents can live safely. The Immigration Services Agency attributes the fall in overstayers to its “Zero Illegal Stay Plan.”
The government tightened the Business Manager status, saying its criteria were looser than similar systems abroad and were being misused for migration. At a Liberal Democratic Party special committee, members called for even stricter rules, such as requiring a certain level of Japanese. In a September 27 post on X, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the number of certificates of eligibility issued for this status fell 90% (a different measure from the 80.9% drop in new entries).
Sanseito, which campaigns on “Japanese first,” warns of a “silent invasion” — foreign influence spreading in Japan unnoticed. AFP reports that, amid rising anti-immigrant sentiment, the prime minister is pushing stricter policies on foreigners and immigration control.
Coexistence and labor needs
In an editorial, the Shinano Mainichi Shimbun noted that fewer than 10% of companies in Japan have capital of 30 million yen or more, calling the requirement unreasonable for foreigners who run small shops on their own. It argued that industry and local communities cannot function without foreign residents and criticized government policy for fueling discrimination and xenophobia.
Japanese Communist Party lawmaker Sohei Nihi cited agency data showing that only about 4% of Business Manager residents meet the new 30 million yen requirement, and argued that local shops must not be wiped out. Online petitions also spread calling for ethnic restaurants to be allowed to stay open.
Journalist Kota Takaguchi notes that Japan's share of foreign residents is low among major developed countries, and argues that the backlash is driven by the speed of the increase rather than the share. He warns that dismantling intake policies carelessly could hurt the Japanese economy. AFP reports that business groups are also calling for comprehensive policies to support foreign residents.
What the data shows
The number of Business Manager residents who left Japan without re-entry permission rose from 246 in the first half of 2025 to 953 in the first half of 2026. A government official said more departures is neither good nor bad in itself; what matters is the “quality” of foreign residents. Existing residents have a three-year grace period (until October 16, 2028), during which renewals will not be refused solely for failing the new criteria.
OECD figures (2024) put the foreign share at 16.4% in Germany, 9.1% in France, 7.6% in the United States and 4.2% in South Korea, versus 2.7% in Japan (definitions differ, so the figure does not match the agency's count). Meanwhile, the 2025 census found that municipalities where foreigners exceed 5% rose from 53 to 132 in five years, spreading into rural areas.
Posts on X
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: On September 27, she said the review of Business Manager criteria cut certificates of eligibility issued in the first half of 2026 by 90% year on year (3,074 fewer). This differs from the 80.9% fall in new entries reported by the Immigration Services Agency in October.
View the post by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on X ↗
Videos
Reading between the lines
This section is our editors' interpretation (speculation). It is not confirmed, but the facts it is based on are sourced.
Immigration Services Agency and Justice Ministry
Why highlight declining figures alongside the record total?
SpeculationEach time the number of foreign residents hits a record, social media backlash about “too many” grows. By stressing the 80% drop in Business Manager entries and the fall in overstayers on the same day, the agency and the justice minister appear to have wanted to show results of tighter control so the record figure would not dominate on its own.
Facts this is based on
- • The agency attributes the fall in overstayers to its Zero Illegal Stay Plan.Sankei Shimbun (overstayers down 4.8% in six months, Japanese)(Oct 16)
- • Amid rising anti-immigrant sentiment, the prime minister is pushing stricter policies on foreigners and immigration.AFPBB News (foreign residents hit record 4.28 million, Japanese)(Oct 17)
- • The prime minister said on social media that Business Manager approvals had fallen by 90%.Shinano Mainichi Shimbun editorial (tighter residence rules, Japanese)(Oct 19)
Government and business
Why does the total keep rising despite tighter rules?
SpeculationThe tightening targeted specific statuses such as Business Manager, while work-related statuses that fill labor shortages — Specified Skilled Worker and Engineer/Specialist in Humanities/International Services — grew sharply. The government promotes “orderly acceptance” but has not stopped admitting workers, which is why stricter rules and a record total are happening at the same time.
Facts this is based on
- • In six months, Specified Skilled Worker rose by 53,960 and Engineer/Specialist in Humanities/International Services by 40,394.Immigration Services Agency (foreign residents as of end of June 2026, Japanese)(Oct 16)
- • Business Manager holders are a small share of all Chinese residents; growth appears to have come through other statuses.Yahoo! News Expert (on Japan's 940,000 Chinese residents, Japanese)(Oct 18)
What people are saying
We searched Japanese posts on X (formerly Twitter) for terms such as “foreign residents 4.28 million,” “Business Manager tightening” and “foreign residents coexistence labor shortage” from October 14–20, 2026. The most widely read posts were critical of the increase; apart from shared news links, we found almost no posts from individuals emphasizing coexistence or labor needs, so we could not present equal numbers of voices from each side. For that side's arguments, see the views above. We excluded posts containing stereotypes or insults about foreigners.
Tighter control
- “An increase of 150,000 in just six months is too fast. I want the government to make clear how far it intends to expand intake.”
- “The old Business Manager rules were simply too loose; this is less a crackdown than a return to normal. Other statuses should be reviewed too.”
- “The resident count doesn't include people staying illegally, so the real number must be higher.”
Posts are paraphrased, not quoted, and individual accounts are not named.
3. Where things stand
Where they agree
- Foreign residents reached a record 4.28 million.
- New entries under the tightened Business Manager status fell sharply.
- The number of overstayers continues to decline.
Where they disagree
- Whether the current pace is “too fast” and total intake should be managed.
- Whether the 30 million yen capital requirement is a reasonable safeguard against misuse or too harsh on small shops.
What to watch
- The government's basic policy, including intake management (due March 2027).
- How renewals for existing Business Manager residents are handled after the three-year grace period.
- Year-end 2026 resident numbers and the trend in overstayers.
It is true that foreign residents reached a record 4.28 million. But the six-month increase was smaller than a year earlier, and their share of the population is about 3.5%, not 10%. Overstayers keep declining, so claims that illegal stays are rising do not match the statistics. Just over half of Business Manager residents were Chinese, but new entries fell 80% after the rules were tightened. Those who want tighter control argue that the pace should be slowed and residence screening made stricter. Those who prioritize coexistence worry that the policy could drive out foreigners who support local shops and short-staffed workplaces.